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POLITICS: President Obama’s approval rating has dropped below 50% for the first time in the latest polls, as has support for the U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. Along with the health care debate, the continuing recession and the renewed threats of terrorism, the Democrats are in worse shape with the electorate than they have been since winning the election a year ago; and that’s cheering GOP ranks.

By Dennis Mullin

The President’s approval rating is now 48 to 42 percent, the first time he has slipped below the 50 percent threshold nationally and the highest negatives he has ever recorded. His handling of the war in Afghanistan over which he keeps postponing key decisions has also plunged to new lows.

AFGHANISTAN: Twice as many Republicans support the war as Democrats – an indication that Obama is slipping with his base, along with the much publicized exodus of independents from his ranks. American voters say 48–41% that fighting the war in Afghanistan is the right thing to do, down from 52–37% in October. They disapprove 49– 38% of the President’s handling of the war.

But voters say 65–29% that eliminating the threat of terrorists operating from Afghanistan “is a worthwhile goal for American troops to fight and possibly die for,” compared to 65–28% last month. They support sending 40,000 more combat troops as the military commanders on the ground have requested – and Obama has so far refused to do. But only 27% of Democrats want more troops, compared to 68% of Republicans. Similarly, 68% of Republicans, but only 31% of Democrats, think the United States is doing the right thing fighting in Afghanistan.

COALITIONS: “Increasingly, the President finds himself with two different coalitions, one that backs him on domestic matters and a completely different one that backs him on Afghanistan. That could create a challenge to his considerable political skills,” said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Moreover, the percentage who approve of the way he is handling the economy has dropped from a split 47–46% approval in October to 52–43% disapproval today. The President also has a yawning gender and racial gap, with women approving his job performance 52–37%, compared to men’s 47–44% disapproval.  He gets 89% job approval among blacks and 62% among Hispanics while white voters disapprove 49–41%. His support also wanes as you go up the age and income scale.

ACROSS THE BOARD: “Overall, the new numbers on Afghanistan show an almost across the board erosion of support for the war and worries about getting too deeply involved there militarily. But when the focus is on fighting terror, American resolve remains strong,” Brown said. “Still, these results are an indication that there is not much stomach for a long-term U.S. commitment in Afghanistan and the number of Americans who feel that way is growing.”

Further complicating matters for the President, is his decision to try terrorists now held in Guantanamo in civilian courts – essentially giving them all of the legal protections accorded to American citizens in civil disputes. Many question the logic of offering American protections to those who would destroy the system killing everyone within it. The shootings at Fort Hood, Texas have also raised serious concerns, that the military is being forced to adopt Democratic favored “political correctness,” in looking the other way while doubts emerge about the loyalty of some Americans.

POLITICAL POWER: Rich Baehr writes on realclearpolitics.com that the Democrats have more political power than they have had at any time since the presidency of LBJ – controlling the presidency, holding a filibuster-proof 60 seats in the Senate and an 81-seat margin in the House. Yet even as they have the power to advance their agenda without a single Republican vote in Congress, they are currently in a, “remarkably rapid political freefall.” He says, “The Democrats, but one year after their great triumph in 2008, are now facing an angry, pessimistic electorate. There is a strong anti-incumbent mood, and the list of endangered Democratic-held seats in the House and Senate grows each week.”

Many other polls back the latest numbers, showing the president’s approval numbers have dropped 20 points in nine months – only a third of the electorate think the country is now headed in the right direction. “The Obama hope and change message, rapturously conveyed by an adoring lapdog media during the campaign and in the first few months of his presidency, looks as if it has the staying power of a one-night stand with the electorate,” he continues.

JOBLESS: Unemployment, the single most important concern of Americans in nearly every survey, now exceeds 10%, despite assurances from the president and leaders in Congress that the $787 billion stimulus package would keep the unemployment rate from going higher than 8%. As the unemployment rate rises and the number of unemployed climbs to over 15 million, the administration trots out the president and his spokespeople each month to provide ever higher and less believable numbers.

Baehr notes that only a tiny portion of the stimulus money was directed at infrastructure spending, one area where unemployment is the highest. “In China, almost all the stimulus spending was on infrastructure investments, and their economy is booming again,” he says. “The Obama stimulus included cash directed to reward the left-wing special interest groups that had helped elect the Democrats. Much of that federal largess also went to support bloated state and local governments, whose costs have been driven up by the municipal unions who control them and are a key to electing Democrats.”

He goes on: “It is not coincidental that Andy Stern, head of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), an aggressive labor group that provided manpower and $60 million to the 2008 campaign, has had over 20 visits to the White House in nine months. Stern’s often raucously behaved troops are needed to do the community organizing for health care reform and other parts of the progressive agenda. For General Stanley McChrystal, Obama’s appointed commander of the Afghanistan campaign, the president was able to find all of 20 minutes for a meeting on his way home from his failed bid for the Chicago Olympics. Three months after he started his review of the Afghanistan operation, the president is now calling for new options for consideration.”

SETBACKS: “Democrats are now in danger of losing Senate seats in Connecticut, Delaware, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Illinois, and Pennsylvania. Republicans now lead (narrowly in some cases) in open seat races where a GOP member is retiring in Florida, Kentucky, Ohio, and New Hampshire — all considered highly vulnerable to a party switch to the Democrats a few months back. The Republican is leading even in Missouri, another open seat where McCain managed a narrow victory in 2008.”

“After losing all the close Senate races in the 2006 and 2008 cycles (Missouri, Montana, Virginia, Alaska, Minnesota, and Oregon), a bit of luck could bring the GOP to near parity in the Senate after 2010” Baehr concludes. “In the House, Republicans hold only 177 seats, but Democrats hold 49 seats in districts won by John McCain in 2008. And George W. Bush won 255 House districts in 2004, a year in which he won the popular vote over John Kerry by 2.4%. At the moment, the GOP leads in the generic party ballot for Congress by 4-6%. Obviously, a margin for the GOP in that range in 2010 would result in a large pickup in the House and a chance at winning back control.”

HELL-BENT: The president and Democrats in Congress still seem hell-bent on advancing their agenda, particularly health care reform, a proposal that fails to earn 50% popular support. There has never been as significant a piece of domestic legislation that has been pushed through almost entirely with the votes by members of only one party in Congress and as narrowly as occurred in the House vote on the health care reform bill.

Momentum for any bill that approaches the grandiosity of the House version appears to be waning in the Senate. In the end, Democrats may be forced to choose between giving their assent to a very unpopular piece of legislation or having it die along with their progressive dream of government control of health care.

The new deficit number for October, a startling $176 billion, combined with the $1.4 trillion deficit for 2009 and the $12 trillion accumulated public debt, has made many Americans wary of a new federal spending package of well over a trillion dollars in ten years for health care reform -- especially since total spending for ObamaCare may go higher than that.

DEFICITS: In October, the federal government spent $311 billion and collected $135 billion in revenues. In other words, revenues covered 43% of spending and 57% needed to be borrowed. Lots of Americans know these numbers are unsustainable. It is no surprise, given the polling numbers, that there are now reports that the president will pivot and attempt to convince the American people in his January State of the Union address that he plans to focus on only two things: job creation and bringing the deficit down. For a president who has spent more on new programs in nine months than Bill Clinton did in eight years, it might be a tough sell.

The initiatives of the administration and its Democratic allies -- health care reform that will raise premiums for companies, new labor rules, cap and trade, abandoning free trade agreements -- all are job killers, particularly for small business, the engine of job creation. The goodies have all gone to the public sector -- government workers, teachers, community organizing groups -- that live off the government dole.

Republicans are finding it a lot easier to recruit candidates and raise money. They have a  wind at their back, a highly energized base of conservative voters, independents shifting to the GOP in large numbers, and two big wins in governor’s races (with a 20% shift away from the Democrats in both Virginia and New Jersey). Add to that a strong anti-incumbent mood and the administration faces storm clouds on many policy fronts.