POLITICS: They say one day can be a lifetime in politics. Obama hasn’t even been behind the Oval Office desk for 18 months and he is already a haunted apparition of the man who sent homoerotic chills up Chirs Matthews leg and had the Democrats and their media lapdogs swooning nationwide. The President’s approval ratings continue their steady inexorable decline, 60.7 percent believe the country is headed for hell in a hand basket, and his handling of the oil spill has disapproval ratings far greater than Bush on Katrina. He ran as a “progressive” who would make everybody rich overnight without working and against the handling of Katrina and the war in Iraq, while promising a new global love in. Now he’s given all the money away and soon won’t be able to borrow any more – he and the nation are about to become homeless; he is soaking in oil and getting hammered in Afghanistan and they are laughing at him out loud from Paris to Pago Pago. If this were a fight, they’d stop it.

By Dennis Mullin

POLLS:  A new public opinion survey for NPR  shows just how difficult it will be for Democrats to avoid big losses in the House this November, when the first referendum on the “savior’s” leadership rolls around. Pollsters Stan Greenberg (Democrat) and Glen Bolger (Republican) found the news grim for Democrats.

The two chose districts that are open or where incumbents are considered the most vulnerable. In the so-called swing districts, where the winner was not of the party the area voted for President, voters are choosing Republicans over Democrats 49 percent to 41 percent. "In a year where voters want change and in which Democrats are seen to be in power, this is a tough poll — about as tough as you get," Greenberg said.

Bolger said the poll results should be a wake-up call for Democrats, who were stunned at the beginning of the year when Republican Scott Brown won the U.S. Senate seat held for years by the late Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts. "If Massachusetts was the first wake-up call, this is was the snooze alarm going off," Bolger said.

NO COAT-TAILS: He pointed out that President Obama's approval ratings are much lower in these competitive districts than they are nationally: 54 percent of the likely battleground voters disapproved of Obama's performance; 40 percent approved. "It's very problematic for the president to have a 40 percent approval rating in these 60 Democratic districts," Bolger said. "When you look at history, when the president is below 50 percent nationally, his party tends to lose more than 40 seats."

Bolger says the NPR poll has more evidence of a trend that's been apparent all year: Republican-leaning voters are energized, while the intensity seems to have leached out of the Democratic ranks. "When you look at the generic ballot for Congress in the Democrat-held seats, the Republican is up by 5 (points). But among those who rate their interest as 8 to 10, you know, the high-interest voters, the Republican leads in those Democratic seats 53 to 39. "And what that means is that is in a close election, the Republican enthusiasm will put Republicans over the top, just like in '06 and '08, the Democratic enthusiasm put the Democrats over the top."

Democratic candidates have had success in some of the recent special elections. But despite those wins, the outlook for the midterms is still toxic for Democrats, Bolger said. "Democrats will have some good plays by individual campaigns, but it's getting close. The concrete is drying – it's getting very difficult for this to change away from a scenario of Republicans picking up at least 30 seats," he said. And as Greenberg knows all too well, Republicans only need 40 wins to take control of the House.

TOO LIBERAL: On the major problems for the Democrats is that despite Obama’s pledge to govern as a centrist, his policies and those of Congress have been pretty radical – from the nationalization of the automobile industry to enrich unions over shareholders,  to cramming through a health care reform package that nearly nobody likes – but meets the liberal’s goals of socialization. Further, keenly aware that come November their majority may never again be this strong, the Democrats are hell bent on getting every radical thought they ever had passed before they lose their majorities in both houses – something that might not happened again for a generation.

The evidence of the perceptual problem came again from Gallup last week. In the latest polls half of all voters said they believed the Democratic Party was “too liberal,” an increase of 15 percentage points since Obama got elected as a centrist. That’s a huge jump, and the largest percentage of movement was among independents (not Republicans) that make up the most important swing factor in all elections.

ETHICS FARSE: Meanwhile, the Democratic leadership in Congress, which enjoys a 72 percent disapproval rate, keeps ignoring Republicans and voters alike pushing through an agenda written in the 1960s, and determined to “remake” American society whether it wants a do-over or not. The Wall Street Journal says House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is sending private signals that she is now even willing to support watering down the powers of the Office of Congressional Ethics, the panel she and fellow Democrats created last year to serve as a new watchdog on congressional misconduct.

Susan Crabtree of The Hill newspaper reports on a meeting late in May between members of the Congressional Black Caucus and Speaker Pelosi. The Speaker heard a litany of complaints about the OCE's aggressiveness and its public release of documents that reflected badly on the reputations of members. Both Ms. Pelosi and House Whip Jim Clyburn indicated sympathy with the complaints, agreeing that the ethics office's operations had resulted in unintended consequences.

WRONGDOING: Shortly after the meeting, Ohio Democrat Marcia Fudge and 19 other members of the Congressional Black Caucus introduced legislation to reduce the office's powers to investigate wrongdoing. No one expects the legislation to go anywhere, but it may be a stalking horse for an attempt to change the House's rules late this year should Democrats retain control after November.

The Office of Congressional Ethics, which is largely composed of former members, was created in 2008 by Democrats who vowed to establish a more ethical Congress. As Speaker Pelosi said at the time: "We have come here to drain the swamp. The New Direction Congress will for the first time open the ethics process up to the participation of our fellow citizens, which will make this institution more accountable." Now it would appear that the OCE has become an inconvenience or threat to some Members.

CORRUPTION: Rep. Arthur Davis, an Alabama Democrat who is leaving Congress at the end of this year, is one member of the Congressional Black Caucus who thinks his colleagues are making a mistake. "There was a problem a few years ago with corruption in this institution, and that's why [the OCE] was created," he says. "I would hate to see the leadership walk away from this commitment."

Other Members are even more pointed in their criticism of those who would water down the powers of the OCE. "The cynical among us would assert that the people crying the loudest have the most to hide," Rep. Tim Johnson, an Illinois Republican, said in a statement. "Perhaps the OCE is a victim of its own success. If it weren't making a difference, we wouldn't be having this conversation."

SPENDING FATIGUE:  And if the hypocrisy spawned my Obama’s horribly confused signals isn’t enough, many lifelong Democrats are now bailing out on the essentials of his agenda. Democratic pol Steny Hoyer, majority leader of the U.S. House, is balking at Obama's latest bailout proposal. "I think there is spending fatigue," said Hoyer. "It's tough in both houses to get votes."

Hoyer was referring to Obama's weekend letter to Capitol Hill calling for a $50 billion bailout of state and city governments, to spare our elected politicians the pain of balancing their budgets with their own tax revenues. Obama calls it an "emergency" measure to prevent "massive layoffs of teachers, police and firefighters." Yet, none of the 20 million state, county or municipal workers can lose their job unless an elected legislature and a chief executive agree that they should go.

Obama is calling for a taxpayer rescue of the political class to which he belongs, to spare it the painful duty tens of thousands of business executives have had to perform. Private employees -- 25 million of who are out of work, underemployed or have given up looking for jobs -- may be expendable, but government workers are not.

GOVERNMENT TROUGH: As America is running a second consecutive deficit of $1.4 trillion, however, the U.S. government has no tax revenue to send to the cities and states. We would have to borrow the $50 billion from China, Japan and the Persian Gulf nations. Obama is thus asking Congress to deepen America's fiscal crisis and put the next generation on the hook for another $50 billion so today's mayors and governors can get an exemption from their political duty.

Government workers enjoy far greater job security than private-sector workers. At the state and local level, their average pay and benefits, about $40 an hour, far exceed the $27 per hour in the private sector. The federal worker has it even better, receiving $30,000 a year more in pay and benefits than the average worker in the private sector.

INEPTITUDE: The President’s ineptitude and hypocrisy has been so shocking it has achieved the unachievable: It's about two years too late, but Hillary Clinton has finally pulled ahead of Obama. By any measure -- favorability ratings or job approval -- Americans by a sizable margin have warmer views of the secretary of state than they do of the president. This is of little use to Clinton beyond bragging rights, but among Hillary '08 fans there is some satisfaction that the woman Obama once cut down as "likable enough" is now more liked than he is. Depending on the measure and the poll, she leads him by roughly 10 to 25 percentage points.

To understand why, look no further than their calendars for Monday. The president was in Alabama and Mississippi, trying again to change the public perception that his administration has been weak in its response to the oil spill. The secretary of state was in Washington receiving plaudits for being a "passionate leader" and for taking a "resolute and genuine" stand against human trafficking and slavery.

In the ceremonial Ben Franklin Room of the State Department, the passionate and resolute Clinton vowed her commitment "to abolishing this horrible crime" against human dignity. "Traffickers must be brought to justice," she said.

HILLARY LURKS: For a public figure, few issues are as politically safe; the slavery and exploitation lobby, after all, was unlikely to issue a rebuttal. Clinton finished her day Monday with a speech on the need for help in sub-Saharan Africa; no criticism from the keep-Africa- poor movement was heard.

Contrast that with Obama, who had only grim tidings for Gulf Coast residents about the BP oil spill. He spoke to them of a "fear that it could have a long-term impact on a way of life that has been passed on for generations." Give Obama points for honesty, but that's not going to boost his poll numbers.

Previous secretaries of state Colin Powell and Condoleezza Rice were both more popular than their boss, President George W. Bush. But such a trend is not universal: Warren Christopher didn't have ratings as high as his boss, President Bill Clinton. Hillary Clinton helped her situation by sticking to relatively low-profile issues. While the White House drove the divisive policies such as Afghanistan, she has busied herself in quieter corners of the world, enhancing the perception that she's above the political fray.

PIMARY THREAT: Now the former first lady and Democratic senator from New York is asserting herself in a few domestic areas. Releasing the 10th annual Trafficking in Persons report Monday, she noted that, "for the first time ever, we are also reporting on the United States of America," an effort "to ensure that our policies live up to our ideals." (The State Department gave the United States its top grade.)

Before that, Clinton offered some commentary on the domestic economy, declaring: "You've got countries who are explicitly saying to me in private, 'Well, look, you know, we always look to you because you had this great economy. And now, look, you're in the ditch, and you've dragged other people into the ditch.' "

That statement was enough to send the likes of Bill O'Reilly, the conservative Fox News commentator, to outline a potential Clinton primary challenge to Obama in 2012. There's no sign of such a challenge, but there's no disputing that Obama has fallen below Clinton.

This month's liberal Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll found that 51 percent view Obama favorably, down from 77 percent at the time of his inauguration last year. Clinton, who had a favorability rating in the 40s during her first-lady days in 1996, has stayed in the 60s since she started the job at the State Department. The infrequently asked "job approval" question has produced an even larger Clinton edge.